I like to read the press releases of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Its a continuous stream of enforcement actions against fraud and phonies inside the Futures trading globe. Actually, a number of my posts have triggered enforcement actions so its ability to see who got hammered and sort of respect my work.
Throughout the month of September 2018, the CFTC has declared a new form of spoofing offenses against various individuals and trading firms. The following are just the most recent…for September,
- CFTC charges Futures trader at Mizuho Bank.
- CFTC charges Futures traders at Geneva Trading.
- CFTC charges Futures trader at Victory Asset.
Usually, these spoofing violations result in fines and penalties that start at $2ook and can go as high as hundreds of millions of dollars. Many readers might even be surprised to read that some of the “cleanest” and reputable trading firms also engage in this illegal behavior.
During the month of January and February alone, Deutch Bank was fined over $100 million dollars for spoofing Futures markets–in two separate trading divisions.
Heck, there is even a cottage industry of software developers that design and create specific software programs that facilitate this illegal activity. During the month of January 2018, Edge Financial Technologies was charged with fraud and aiding and abetting for creating a spoofing software program that systematically fleeced investors.
What exactly is spoofing?
Spoofing is incredibly simple. It is the act of stuffing the order book with buy or sell orders…that you have no intention of actually executing. Anyone can do it. Lets take a look at the most common example.
Suppose that you enter a long position in the Emini SP500 futures contract at 1300. You want the price to go higher so that you can make a profit. For the majority of us, we have to sit and hope that additional buyers will push the market higher.
Spoofers do not wait for ‘organic’ or natural buyers to enter the market. Spoofers use sophisticated computer programs that instantaneously enter massive quantities of orders in the area where they want to exit their trade. Not where they want to enter a trade.
The influx of orders is meant to fool small investors into believing that something big is happening. And they should pile into their position, in the direction of the order flow.
However, the spoofed orders are never actually filled. They are canceled just a millisecond before the price touches the order. Small traders, like us, cannot see the manipulation because humans do not have the capacity to digest information and react at the millisecond level.
The end result is that small investors, like us, are spending a great majority of our time ‘chasing our own tails’ while the spoofers are leading us from point A to point B.
The scam of Order Flow Analysis
If you Google search Order Flow Analysis, you will be presented with a range of software providers that supposedly can predict the future by analyzing order flow. The most popular include:
- Market Delta
- Order Flow Analytics
- Jigsaw Trading
- Noft Traders
- Order Flow Trading
- Order Flows
- Delta Scalper
- Financial Mind
- Zone Trader Pro
- Book Map
Since 2014, I have written about many of the businesses listed above. All of them offer the exact same Order Flow’snake oil’ pitch where they assert their day trading software forecasts the future by looking at institutional trading volumes entering and leaving the marketplace.
But not one of those providers have been able to come up with a definable and systematic approach for their applications.
In the last several decades, I’ve gone around and about emailing with almost all of these Order Flow software providers and requested for a systematic approach…not a single provider has answered the call.
Instead, they provide the typical soft response like,”we layout resources and visualization methods that help traders better understand order flow”
The scammers have noticed
One of the great pioneers of the electronic trading arena is a person named Jonathan Walden of Rithmic. Many readers are familiar with Rithmic and use it daily. Jonathan essentially designed the plumbing that nearly all Futures contracts are currently trading. He is a true pioneer.
Whenever we have a rash of spoofing violations, I usually send Jonathon an email and ask for help explaining how the fraud is being executed. As a technology provider, it is never in his interest to “open the kimodo” of companies that use his technology. But Jonathon just tells it like it is.
I don’t want to put words into his mouth or mischaracterize our conversations, but it is pretty obvious what has been happening.
In the past 15 years, as more and more traders have come to rely upon Order Flow as their main analysis channel…the larger institutions have devised increasingly sophisticated methods of manipulating the short term actions of small investors.
In short, they are using our flawed tools against us.
So what is the solution?
In my opinion, short-term ‘order flow’ analysis tools are just another technical analysis scam. On a short-term basis, none of this stuff and be clearly defined and backtested for performance.
So should you become a spoofer? I am sure that many readers are asking themselves this very question. However, in order to become a spoofer, you will need an extremely large futures trading account. Preferably several massive futures trading accounts.
Once you have several accounts, then you would need a software solution that aligns the activities of each account, so that they mirror each other.
Next, you would need an automatic program that fires off thousands of ‘fake’ orders in the direction of where you want to fool your fellow traders.
Yes, you can probably earn millions of dollars and might even get away with it. At least for a while. But eventually, the truth leaks and the next thing you know…you are being shoved inside a concrete box. Just not worth it. You cannot put a price on freedom.
In my opinion, the best solution is automated futures trading strategies. Do the hard work of programming and developing a series of edges that you can execute yourself. Stop relying upon whack-a-doodle software providers promising zany profits with indicators that look like a Christmas tree lights.
A great starter book for Futures traders
One of the best books that I have discovered regarding developing intraday futures trading strategies is a book written by Art Collins.
Nobody really knows about this guy. He a CME member and full-time Futures traders based out of Chicago. In 2006, Art published the following book:
I know, its an ugly book. But its full of really good short-term trading strategies. I have programmed them all.
Some readers might already be griping, “Its an old book!” Yes, that is true. However, in 2017, Art followed up the original book with an almanac book that reexamines how each strategy has performed since the original publishing.
Some readers might be tempted into just purchasing the 2017 Almanac. Don’t. If you are considering purchasing the book, then buy the original book.
The original book contains the logic behind the code. The logic is where the real power is revealed.
Wrapping things up
This blog post went on for quite a while. I wanted to talk about spoofing and give the CFTC some praise for recent busts.
Then I wanted to transition into the shitty ‘Order Flow’ software that everyone seems to be using. Maybe take a bit of luster off thy turd.
And finally, remind people that success in Futures trading is not found in trading indicators that more resemble an ensemble of Christmas tree lights. Instead, success is mostly found in programming and backtesting trading strategies. And then automating the strategies, or developing a hybrid framework that allows a person to manually execute.
Thanks for reading. Oh, and I have to disclose that if you purchase Art’s book on Amazon, I receive compensation of .35 cents. Yes, I am getting rich.
On the agenda for the remainder of September 2018:
- Publishing a new strategy from Larry Connors newest book.
- Publishing the results and tracking for Trade-Ideas ‘Holly’ Artificial Intelligence Investment Engine.
Thanks again for reading.